Member Avatar for Reverend Jim

They thought their vote didn't count?

It probably never did before. I've been voting democrat (federally) for years and except for one brief shining moment when the dems managed to attain official opposition status under Jack Layton it never made a whit of difference.

Member Avatar for diafol

Well, there may be something in that Jim. The Welsh vote has not had too much of an effect on UK politics since WW2. We only have 40 MPs out of 650 (533 for England, 59 for Scotland, 40 for Wales and 18 for Northern Ireland) at present, set to decrease further. We are almost an irrelevance in Westminster. Pretty pointless. I suppose it's par for the course for a small nation. However, that's another rant.

I think there's more to it though - this is a pretty good summary, although I don't agree with all of it:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/wales-referendum-remain-leave-vote-uk-eu-membership

Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Nationalist Party (not the fascist type of nationalist!) have just announced that they will be hardening their policy of independence from the UK. It seems like a pipe dream, but it may get some traction. Previous issues for not pursuing this long-held aspiration have been largely economic, but I think Brexit has shaken the beehive. We were getting "something" in the form of EU money addition to under-funding from Westminster (the hated Barnett formula) - now that's gone. So. We're f*cked either way. Perhaps we really don't have much else to lose.

Member Avatar for ddanbe

Britania will never rule the waves again!
Most bexiteers like to get out, because they believe UK can still do it on his own.
Wrong thinking if you ask me.
I live in the Flemish part of a country that further consists of a Walloon part(thanks J. Caesar) and a small German part(Yes WWI and WW2 were here). Dutch, French and German are official languages here. We are just a minor spot onthe map, by accident we happen to have a great foorball team, so what? I don’t feel I’m Flemish or Belgian. I feel more like a citizen of the 3th planet circling a star called Sol.
We should all unite and fight one enemy: terrorism.
I’ve seen reasons for it in New York, Brussels Zavemtem airport, and now Turkey Istanbul airport. What will be next? No we, the politicians that is, are more concerned with their own country and career than with solving the perhaps unsolvable terrorism problem.

Member Avatar for diafol

Britania will never rule the waves again!

So true. What the hell these morons were thinking?

Member Avatar for Agilemind

What the hell these morons were thinking?

Clearly too much Dr. Who, has made them think they can time-travel back to the 1950s...

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Finally, someone (over here) in the media is doing something a little more insightful than calling the exit voters morons or bigots. Let's hear it for Bernie Sanders for once again focusing on the issues.

Member Avatar for diafol

Well that.s all well and good Brexit for my neck of the woods is a disaster. One of our own making. The EU was never perfect and nobody said it was. However we have a period of limbo until September at the very earliest until a plan can begin to be implemented. Nobody it seems has a clue as to what to do next. Politicians are sharpening knives and playing their usual game. The truth is that immigration will be unaffected and the economy will not be better off. The financial situation of the common family will not improve regardless of the carving up of contracts to different big corporations compared to current big corporations. Before you have a pop at me for calling certain people morons you should walk a mile in my shoes. The conversations I had with many people and the ridiculous arguments they were spouting. Not just differences of opinion - that I can respect - but more akin to creationism and crystal healing. While certain individuals can put forward articulate arguments for leaving, the majority of people I talked to were reiterating the obvious nonsense they were reading in our Red Top newspapers. Anyhow Boris Johnson and Michael Gove will be warming up to be the next PM but they.ll be shitting themselves with having to put a plan in place post-Brexit. Currently there is no plan. Huh.

Member Avatar for JamesCherrill

The above (which I agree with) was written before today's shock news that Boris has announced that he is not the man to lead the Conservative party and the country. This follows directly on Gove's equally shock announcement that he will stab Boris in the back and run against him.
So, Diafol's last lines are quite precient. Boris has obviously realised that the P.M. role is a poisoned chalice - implement brexit and be hated, or don't implement it and be hated - and decided that when it's lose/lose you don't play.
Faced with Gove as the opposition it looks like Theresa May is in a good position, and she's a "remainer".

Member Avatar for ddanbe

I guess there is no word for it in English, but in Dutch we would say that Boris is a "broekschijter". Could be loosly translated as: "pants shitter".

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I guess there is no word for it in English, but in Dutch we would say that Boris is a "broekschijter". Could be loosly translated as: "pants shitter".

I've always thought that the English language is so boring compared to some other languages like German and Gaelic. I'll now add Dutch to that list. What a great word! I can't wait to try it out.

Member Avatar for diafol

We have a word in Welsh too - Cachgi - "Shitting dog" = coward. :)

Member Avatar for Reverend Jim

Before you have a pop at me for calling certain people morons you should walk a mile in my shoes.

My point wasn't to criticize anyone for using the terms "moron" or "bigot" but to point out that it was unfair to reduce what happened to only those terms. Anyone, after a few moments of sober, serious thought, should be able to see the holes in creationism, crystal healing, homeopathy, etc. When it comes to understanding high finance, tax laws and the working of the economy, especially at the international level, I think that is simply beyond the capability of most people. There are so many opinions (mostly spouted in self-interest) being slung about that most people are unable to tell the lies from the truth.

Member Avatar for ddanbe

There was a turnout of about 72%. See here for an example. The results of the referendum were 52% leave, 48% stay. (All figures rounded a bit)
The media are all pinned on those results.
But if I can still do some simple math, that means that about 37% of the population of the United Kingdom voted to leave, and about 34% voted to stay. Meager results if you ask me.

Member Avatar for Agilemind

Meager results if you ask me.

Plus when you factor in the age-split of the vote if the vote were to be taken again a few years down the road (i.e. when whatever deal is finally hammered out), without a single person changing their mind the result would be a slim majority for remain.

There are so many opinions (mostly spouted in self-interest) being slung about that most people are unable to tell the lies from the truth.

They would if they still trusted expertise, the vast majority of experts predicted economic downturn, the more academic publications (e.g. the economist) all supported remain, not one university came out in favour of leave, and where I am (Cambridge) the local BBC stuggled to have a debate on the issue w.r.t. science research & industry because they couldn't find anyone with relevant expertise who supported Brexit.

Sadly, in this brave new world everyone is an "expert" and everyone has their own "facts".

Edited by Agilemind
Member Avatar for diafol

The mathematics of it and demographic split make me sick. But democracy is democracy, for better or for worse. However, I'm still hoping for an eleventh hour reprieve!

Anyone, after a few moments of sober, serious thought, should be able to see the holes in creationism, crystal healing, homeopathy, etc. When it comes to understanding high finance, tax laws and the working of the economy, especially at the international level, I think that is simply beyond the capability of most people

You'd think that, but the problem was that very few people took the time to give anything serious thought. Christ, I read nearly every article going (for, against and objective) and even though I'm naturally a Europhile (nothing to do with EU), that would not have stopped me voting "leave" if I thought my kids would be better off by doing so. You should have heard the unbelievable shite pouring out of their mouths. They could not see beyond the "immigrant crisis" - which, BTW, we don't actually have in Wales - maybe a crisis due to a lack of them as we can't seem to fill primary healthcare jobs. It seemed to revolve around the "Schroedinger Immigrants" as my friend called them. Simultaneously taking your job while sponging off the state by sitting at home all day claiming welfare. The economic argument, I agree, is a trickier subject and even experts giving "objective information" can lead to a whole raft of interpretations. However, the cold, hard facts for Wales (especially deprived areas) are these - we get a net return on our membership of the EU in addition to all the benefits that being a member of the EU provides.

We now have 5 main ways to proceed AFAICS - none of which really appeal to me:

  • The Norway (or EEA) Model
  • The Switzerland (or ETFA) Model
  • The Canada (or CETA) Model
  • The Turkey Model
  • The WTO Model

Joining the EEA (with Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) would probably mean joining the Schengen Agreement while allowing the 4 main free movements, including people. Oops, your immigrant-phobic population is going bonkers! We'd also have to pay some import tariffs. What we do get is control over our agriculture and fishing policy :) There are a few other benefits too. Not sure the NIL countries would welcome the UK though - we're known as a beligerent, bossy nation - probably the most unpopular country in the world after the USA and possibly Russia.

Joining EFTA (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) gives more scope for individual, compartmentalized trade agreements with the EU. However, Switzerland has seen difficulties as the agreement is largely static but the EU keeps evolving. With so many individual agreements, it has become a resource-heavy nightmare. A new framework was presented but has been floundering for about a year already. Again would SNIL want the UK to be a member? Oh - Schengen and Free Movement would probably apply too. :)

CETA looks like a bust. ISDS (Investor-State Dispute Settlement) mechanism seems to be a sticking point. Canada recently claimed that CETA was going ahead (been 7 years trying to ratify this agreement already), but EU leaders are decidely luke-warm. Doesn't fill one with confidence. This was supposed to be a test bed for an US-EU agreement.

Turkey model - well this gives limited access to the single market without having to make any payments to the EU budget. Seems ideal. However there is an expectation that Turkey aligns its financial rules/laws to the EU. It also has to abide by EU's trade agreements with third countries, i.e. you cannot have your own trade agreement with a third country if the EU has one!

WTO model - no access to the EU single market. Bilateral tariffs. Friendless but free.

"So turkeys do vote for Christmas".

Edited by diafol
commented: So, basically you are stuck (for now) with the WTF model. +0
Member Avatar for AssertNull

Not sure the NIL countries would welcome the UK though - we're known as a beligerent, bossy nation - probably the most unpopular country in the world after the USA and possibly Russia.

Don't you think you're overstating this just a tad? I mean I realize the US, with Britain as its most trusted lieutenant, can't coast on World War 2 and "Ich Bin ein Berliner" and the fall of the Berlin Wall forever, and Lord knows we've screwed up, but "the most unpopular country in the world", with Russia the second, and Britain coming in a close third, is a bit hyberbolic. It's easy to say "Britain and the US are more tyranical than North Korea" while you're in Britain and the US precisely because you're allowed to say that in the US and Britain with no repercussions. Try saying the reverse in North Korea. Or China. Or holding a "Vladimir Putin is a crook" placard on a busy street in Moscow.

This rhetoric has gotten out of hand. I get that we're no longer the beacon of freedom for a lot of the world, nor is the UK, but Donald Trump, for all his stupid talk about building a wall, is talking about building a wall to keep people OUT of the US. The Berlin Wall was built to trap people IN. If the UK was the third least popular country in the world, they never would have passed Brexit for fear of having too many immigrants/refugees because no immigrant/refugee would want to come since their country (ie Syria) would be considered a better country, and it wouldn't be the UK voting to LEAVE the EU, it would be the other EU countries voting to kick the UK out.

I'm sure you didn't mean it literally, just trying to put things in perspective. The US and UK are still kickass countries (in a good way).

Friendless but free.

Well we can be like the unpopular kids at school. Friends with each other. If we invite Russia, we can have a mé·nage à trois.

Member Avatar for AssertNull

Out of curiosity, did the UK make any diplomatic attempt to work within the agreement or to change the agreement prior to the Brexit vote? Normally when a country has whatever issues the UK had with the EU, the diplomats get together and try to hammer something out. Perhaps the UK liked the "no tariffs" bit, but felt the immigration and security part had some holes in it, so you try to negotiate. Would the negotiation have worked? Who knows? But was it attempted? It just seems rather draconian and inept to throw out the baby (trade benefits or whatever you liked) with the bathwater (all the stuff you didn't like).

It also makes it harder to go for any of the five models you discussed if you get a reputation for impetuously ditching an agreement without thinking it through. I try to avoid making deals with such people in my personal life. I imagine countries think along the same lines. It's like the UK woke up with a hangover and said "Oh my God, what have I done?" Not sure how widespread that feeling actually is, but the media sure seem to be finding a lot of people to interview who want to take back their vote. Maybe it's selective "Man on the street" interviewing.

Member Avatar for Reverend Jim

Not sure the NIL countries would welcome the UK though - we're known as a beligerent, bossy nation

Of the almost 200 current member states of the United Nations, the British have, at some point in history, invaded and established a military presence in 171 of them. Perhaps the reputation was earned. But that was then. This is now.

Member Avatar for Agilemind

did the UK make any diplomatic attempt to work within the agreement or to change the agreement prior to the Brexit vote?

Yes, David Cameron negotiated with the EU can got some minor concessions prior to the vote. However, these were barely mentioned during the campaign. The two main issues for the Leavers (as far as I can tell) were immigration : this is generally thought to be a deal-breaker for the EU, access the the single market for trade & capital also entails free movement of labour; and "democracy/sovereignty" : the EU is already pretty democratic compared to the UK, indeed UKIP only had a voice because they won seats in the European Parliament thanks to it's proportional representation (vs UK's FPTP where they still have only 1 seat) and the "sovereignty" demand is very vague so I have no idea what concessions would satisfy it.

Edited by Agilemind
Member Avatar for Reverend Jim

In a recent poll of Sanders supporters, 50% said they will not vote this November and 22% say they will vote Trump. I suppose they will be labeled as morons and racists. Perhaps they are just people for whom the system has long stopped working and have decided that the rest of the country might just as well be as f**ked as they are

Member Avatar for AssertNull

In a recent poll of Sanders supporters, 50% said they will not vote this November and 22% say they will vote Trump.

Is this the poll you are referring to?
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-22/nearly-half-of-sanders-supporters-won-t-support-clinton

A June 14 Bloomberg Politics national poll of likely voters in November’s election found that barely half of those who favored Sanders -- 55 percent -- plan to vote for Clinton. Instead, 22 percent say they’ll vote for Trump, while 18 percent favor Libertarian Gary Johnson.

If this is the poll, Clinton is still leading 55% to 22% over Trump among Sanders supporters who plan to vote in November. If you are correct that half of them are staying home, you'd divide those numbers in half, so 27.5% are voting for Clinton, 11% are Trump voters, and 61.5% are third party/protest/abstain, which is a huge number. But if this is the poll, Hillary is still leading Trump by a 5:2 ratio among Bernie supporters.

Member Avatar for Reverend Jim

I'm apparently having a really hard time getting my point across. It's not that I'm worried that Trump will get elected (well, not that worried). My point (and I do have one) is that there are people who are otherwise "right" thinking who have been so disenfranchised that they'd just as soon see everything burn to the ground then continue with the same old shit but with a new (Democrat) boss. If the system isn't going to work for them then it isn't going to work for anyone.

Edited by Reverend Jim
commented: Valid point. +0
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Cloris Leachman (The Mary Tyler Moore Show) had her own spin-off series called Phylis. In one episode, her daughter said that she and her boyfriend wanted to get married and when Phylis invites his parents over to meet them, she is shocked to find out that they are both (the term used at that time) midgets.

She goes to work the next day. A co-worker senses that something is bothering her and asks her what. She replies "my daughter wants to marry a boy whose parents are midgets". He replies, "What's her problem? Can't she find one?" Every attempt she makes to explain results in him misinterpreting the answer.

I'm thinking I have a little of that going on here.

Member Avatar for AssertNull

Agree. You don't have to be a moron or a bigot to feel you're getting screwed from all sides and hopeless and angry and want to vote for ANYONE who promises to shake up the corrupt status quo. Unfortunately, history is replete with con men fake-populists stepping into that void and harnessing that energy for their own selfish reasons, which are every bit as corrupt as the status quo. History is also replete with examples of disenfranchised people burning their own neighborhoods to the ground and leaving the rulers' neighborhoods unscathed. Everyone deciding whether to vote and for whom and whether to burn it all down should study that history and perhaps re-watch Gladiator. And maybe re-watch Gangs Of New York too. Seriously.

I also agree that it's a common trick to falsely accuse the disenfranchised of being morons and bigots in order to discredit and ignore them as rabble. I do believe that you have to be a moron or a bigot or so angry or desperate that you can no longer think straight to vote FOR Trump (i.e. believe he actually can FIX things for the disenfranchised or wants to) as opposed to AGAINST the status quo that disenfranchised you.

As for Brexit, yeah, I'm sure plenty of people thought hard about it and voted for it for good reasons, but the people who voted for it, then googled "What is the EU?" the next day, no sympathy.

Edited by AssertNull
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I'm thinking I have a little of that going on here.

Well, for me, maybe a little. Anyway, I got it now. I think I got it before, I just didn't really comment on your main point (just did above) and perhaps over-focused on side points and under-focused on your main point. I understand how frustrating that can be.

Member Avatar for diafol

Wrt USA/UK/Russia being unpopular. I didn.t mean to cause offence by that line, however I was talking politically not from a "refugees would like to go there". While in the EEC and then EU, the UK always seemed to think that it had a special status and that it was doing the EU a favour by being a member. There still seems to be that harking back to imperial times and being Great again and by extension being better and more important than anybody else. It really gets my goat. The North Korea thing yeak ok fair one but nobody mentions them. Unless they do the domething daft to the south they will continue be an irrelevance to most countries. The three I mentioned have fingers in every pie. Despised along the Middle East and disliked in the majority of Europe. Not sure how your average Mexican, Cuban and Canadian feel about the USA or Baltic States, Ukraine and Georgia about Russia. But I have a fair idea how many of the Irish, French, Germans and Spanish feel about the UK. Rem I said politically not as individuals! Anyway this was not meant too literally - just a throwaway line to underline the UKs unpopularity in Europe and possibly further afield. However money is money and govts will make choices in their own interests.

commented: No offense taken. +0
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If the system isn't going to work for them then it isn't going to work for anyone.

So they are the electoral equivalent of internet trolls? They are throwing a temper tantrum that could lead to innocent legal immigrants getting death threats or harrassed as we have seen in the UK. That is still a grossly irresponsible, childish thing to do. If they are not morons being duped, then they are incredibly selfish assholes who put satisfying their own anger above the well-being of their neighbours and friends.

commented: Right +0
Member Avatar for Reverend Jim

Not trolls, exactly. Trolls just want to sow discord because they are a$$holes. These people have, aside from the B&Ms (bigots and morons) legitimate complaints. Incidentally, I caught Jessica Williams' farewell appearance on the Daily Show. She interviewed a group of Bernie Sanders supporters who said they would vote Trump. Naturally they showed only the idiots. Although I think they are idiots, they might have had at least one person who could have articulated the (justified) rage they must be feeling with the system. As usual they reduced the whole thing to the most simplistic terms. Jon Stewart would have done better.

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