Who will win an Oscar? Who will be president? When will GPT-5 be released? And will humanity achieve AGI in 2024? Here are ChatGPT's 10 wildest speculations for the new year.
"As a Large Language Model, I am not programmed to see into the future" – yes, we know that ChatGPT can’t predict what will happen. In fact, I don’t believe anybody can. However, people who claim to have psychic abilities usually focus on the lives of the rich and famous in their forecasts. So, just for the lulz, I asked ChatGPT to predict some major events and developments for the coming year. Here are the 10 most interesting speculations, complete with a probability check. But remember – ChatGPT is not a fortune-teller, so take these predictions with a grain of salt. 😉
Who will Win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Answer: Donald Trump
Let’s start with a big one: Who will be in charge of the world’s last remaining superpower, including nuclear launch codes, by the end of the year? ChatGPT's prediction points to Donald Trump. Its reasoning? Although it's still uncertain who will run as the Republican candidate, current opinion polls indicate Trump currently leading Biden by a margin of 1% to 3%. This view is shared by some analysts, who estimate Trump's chances of returning to the White House at around 55%. Oh, jeez.
Will 2024 be the Hottest Year on Record?
Answer: Yes.
ChatGPT suggests that 2024 might become the hottest year on record, a forecast based on ongoing trends in CO2 emissions. This possibility is further supported by the fact that each year since 2014 has ranked among the 10 hottest years ever recorded, with 2023 surpassing the previous record set in 2016. Factors like the expected continuation of El Niño into the second quarter, ongoing nonrenewable energy use, deforestation, etc., collectively contribute to the potentially record-breaking warmth in 2024.
What will be the Price of Bitcoin on December 31, 2024?
Answer: ~ $50,000
This will indeed be an interesting year for Bitcoin (BTC), as the cryptocurrency’s next halving (the fourth since 2012) is set to occur on April 19. After significant bumps in the third quarter of 2023, the price of BTC ranged between $41,000-$45,000 in the last month. So, ChatGPT seems slightly bullish on this one. Bitcoin has never ended a year above $50,000 – the closest being $46,000 in 2021, just weeks after reaching its all-time high of $67,500. 2022 ended with a drop to $16,500. It’s hard to predict what will be going on in crypto one week from now, let alone in one year, hence ChatGPT’s forecast of year-end value of around $50,000 is certainly a possible scenario.
Will the Netflix Adaptation of ‘The Three Body Problem’ Suck?
Answer: Maybe
For the Netflix adaptation of Cixin Liu’s The Three Body Problem, ChatGPT predicts a Rotten Tomatoes score of around 85%. I must admit, ever since Prime altered The Man in the High Castle from a deep, thought-provoking story into a Hollywood spectacle, I've approached TV adaptations of beloved books with caution. The anticipation for Netflix's take on Liu’s acclaimed trilogy makes me feel more anxious than excited. While The Man in the High Castle received decent ratings – 84% on Rotten Tomatoes and 7.8/10 on IMDB – it deviated significantly from Philip K. Dick’s original narrative, dividing fans. This precedent suggests that a similar reception for The Three Body Problem wouldn’t be surprising.
Will India Officially Change its Name in 2024?
Answer: No.
In 2023, India surpassed China to become the world's most populous nation, and there's been increasing use of its pre-colonial name, Bharat, among government officials. While the Indian constitution already recognizes both names, ChatGPT sees an official name change in 2024 as unlikely. Indeed, the idea of rebranding BRICS to BRBCS may not sound appealing. However, with new countries joining the alliance, a rethinking of the group's name could eventually be on the table anyway. We might have to keep an eye on that one for a few more years.
Who will become Time's Person of the Year 2024?
Answer: Greta Thunberg
Greta Thunberg as Time's Person of the Year in 2024 seems unlikely to me, particularly considering the recent controversies surrounding her activism for a free Palestine, followed by rampant accusations of antisemitism (of course, for previous men of the year, antisemitic tendencies were no hindrance but that’s another story). When asked about potential candidates for 2024, ChatGPT first vaguely focuses on climate change leaders, tech innovators, humanitarian figures, peacemakers, and cultural influencers. When pressed to give a name, is predicted Thunberg. However, it's more plausible that the honor could go to another influential figure in the climate movement, and it is doubtful if Greata can do it another time, as she’s already been named person of the year in 2019.
Which Movie will Win the Academy Award for Best Picture at the 2024?
Answer: Dune: Part Two
ChatGPT's pick for the Best Picture at the 2024 Academy Awards, Dune: Part Two, is a bold but unlikely (not to say, impossible) choice. Given that the Dune sequel is set to premiere on March 1, 2024, just 10 days before the ceremony, it falls outside the eligibility period. Oppenheimer is a more favored contender among critics. And even if we consider the Academy Awards 2025 (honoring films released in 2024), I doubt that Dune 2 stands a chance for Best Picture, as sci-fi films are historically underrepresented in this category.
Which Country will Win the UEFA Euro 2024?
Answer: France
The UEFA Euro 2024 is anticipated to be a major event, attracting over 300 million viewers worldwide. ChatGPT predicts France as the winner, citing the team's recent performances, tactical flexibility, experience, and talent. This prediction aligns with many bookmakers who also see France, along with England, as strong contenders for the title. Hence France might be a good bet, although we’ll have to wait until the final on July 14 to find out who wins the tournament.
Will GPT-5 be Released in 2024? If Yes, in which Month?
Answer: Yes, GPT-5 will be released in September 2024.
GPT-5's release, initially scheduled for autumn 2023, has been delayed. However, the staff at vox.com calculates a 75% likelihood of its launch by the end of November 2024. This makes a September release seem plausible. Hopefully, we'll see an interim upgrade to GPT-4.5 in the meantime.
Will AGI be Achieved in 2024?
Answer: No.
The pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has captivated the singularity community. Despite great optimism rooted in last year’s advancements in AI, ChatGPT predicts that AGI is not on the immediate horizon. It cites several hurdles, including technological limitations, ethical concerns, the time required for research, and the complexity of replicating human intelligence. When askes for the year in which AGI will become reality, ChatGPT says 2050. So, we might have to be patient.
Time will reveal the accuracy of these forecasts. I’d personally be surprised if more than 3-4 of the 10 predictions hit the mark, but we’ll find out soon enough. What are your predictions for 2024? Let me know in the comments!
