Although some analysts predicted that Vista may be a flop, it's already quite successful in the business world. It's already outpacing sales of Windows 2000, and catching up quickly to the sales of Windows XP.
Previous blog entries I've written have been predicting the failure of Vista due to a prolonged beta testing period, the inability to move it, and Microsoft haters. Although I doubt that these are entirely untrue, Microsoft is clearly making an impact in the business world with their new operating system.
One the reasons that can be attributed for Vista's inital success in the business world is the fact that getting it is not terribly expensive. It's about the same as Windows XP, so companies upgrading their operating systems from an older version of Windows will likely make the jump directly to Vista instead of waiting with Windows XP.
Microsoft is also relying on the fact that people buy new computers. Pretty soon, any new computer you buy will be pre-loaded with Vista. However, I don't think this is as important in the business world. Businesses tend to be as efficient as possible with their computers, delaying an upgrade until absoloutely necessary. Consumers on the other hand, usually want the latest and greatest so they can game and whatnot.
What am I getting at? If Vista becomes as popular as XP was in the business world, it's likely to sell even better in the consumer market. People love to game, and many new games are going to be Vista-only. This causes a huge incentive to upgrade. And another thing about gamers: they can't use an old computer to game, so they are more likely the type of person that will buy a new computer every 3 years. And it's highly unlikely that someone will downgrade the operating system, so Vista stays put.
The interesting thing to watch will be what happens after upgrading. So far, the main reviews of Vista have been based off the beta, which will vary quite a bit from the final release. This means that Microsoft can attribute slowness to debugging software, etc., etc.. So when the rest of the world begins switching to Vista, consumers will actually get to decide whether they like Vista or not. And that determines that fate of Windows. But from what I've seen so far, Windows is staying here for a while...