Is it time to get back into the market?
I don’t think so – if it walks like a sucker’s market, talks like a sucker’s market, and squawks like a sucker’s market, it’s a sucker’s market.
Tech Ticker’s Aaron Task agrees. He says today that the U.S. still haven't dealt with the bank problem; Q1 earnings are going to be horrific; and investors are still too positive--salivating at the thought of calling the bottom and jumping back in.
But is he engaging in hyperbole when he says that when this bear market finally bottoms, only whack-jobs will be interested in buying stocks ever again?
Yeah, probably.
Elsewhere, traders are talking about a potential Dell rebound? Craig Hallum, a tech stock analyst Christian Schwab writes today about a possible “double rebound”.
Since its baseball season, let’s hear him out. Hallum says that Dell will “get its groove back,” He backs that sentiment up by slapping a “buy” rating and a $19 price target – thus doubling it’s current stock price of $9.83. Hallum’s call is also higher than the 22 other Dell price targets tracked by Thomson/First Call.
“Rarely do investors get a chance to buy MegaCap, MegaRevenue, MegaBrand tech companies that have the potential to nearly double, but that’s exactly what we believe dell could offer investors over the next year,” says Hallum.
Here’s a list of reasons Hallum likes Dell’s stock:
-- The stock is at or near trough valuation on price/cash flow, price/book, EV/EBITDA and forward P/E.
-- The company has a multi-year plan to right-size the business, and has already cut operating expenses substantially, bringing down cost per box by 5%. Total cost reduction target is now $4 billion.
-- He is optimistic that IT spending will improve in the second half “as large corporations recover and credit becomes more available to small- and mid-sized businesses.”
-- With even a modest economic recovery, he writes, the company could see “meaningful P/E expansion” as investors look for liquid, inexpensive, financially powerful companies.” He thinks the stock could trade up to 15x his EPS estimate for the January 2011 fiscal year of $1.26.
-- Schwab also contends that if he’s wrong, “downside is limited given the company’s continual profitability, significant free cash flow generation and current low valuation.”