Could Nexus One Mark Beginning of the End of Google?

When Google developed the Nexus One, they might not have figured on one huge unintended consequence. They pissed off Steve Jobs big time.

"We didn't get into the search business," he reportedly barked, at a Town Hall style meeting, following the iPad announcement last weekend. "They got in the phone business! Make no mistake they want to kill the iPhone. We won’t let them."

Alrighty then--Steve is, a bit, ahem, passionate about this subject, touchy even. Sounds like Google made itself a very powerful enemy when it decided to get into the phone business, one that has run into the waiting arms of Microsoft.

Consider the Possibilities

One estimate I read pegged Bing grabbing half of all iPhone search traffic. That's only one phone of course, but it's a VERY popular phone and it will have at least some impact. Suppose half of all searchers on the iPhone started using Bing and they liked it, so they decided to use it on the desktop too. Suddenly you could start seeing Bing make some progress in its seemingly Sisyphean task of trying to overtake Google in Search.

What if Others Follow

Let's not forget that Google has some other powerful enemies too. There are lots of publishers, who rightly or not, believe Google has stolen their content. Some like Rupert Murdoch, have suggested they will leave the Google index. I've written in Mark Cuban's Plan to Kill Google, that Cuban has suggested Microsoft actually bribe publishers to follow Murdoch's lead. You start pissing off enough powerful people, and you lose a few people here and another few there, and pretty soon you're talking real market share numbers.

Don't Forget the Yahoo! Deal

On top of all this is the deal between Bing and Yahoo!, which will have Yahoo! running Bing under the hood. If you throw in Yahoo's 15 to 20 percent market share on top of the 10 percent that Bing already owns, and you start to chip away at some of the other numbers, suddenly you could be talking a bit of competition. And when the sharks smell blood, it could spell trouble for Google.

Now, let's not forget, right now, Bing has around 10 percent market share and Google has upwards of 60 percent, so the gap is huge. But Google has clearly hit a nerve with some powerful people, and suddenly the company that claims no evil, has built some serious animosity in the marketplace. You can't help but feel it's going to have at least some impact on their business at some point, and that maybe Google will rue the day it built the Nexus One.

[Ratnok]

Please. What a ridiculous argument. If failure and doom were predicated upon how many "powerful enemies" you have, then Wal-Mart would have gone bankrupt a long time ago, and the United States of America would have been blown to smithereens by now.

[Techwriter10]

They aren't going to go away. I'm exaggerating, of course, but as a free service, Google operates in a different sphere than other businesses like WalMart and of course like governments. By competing directly with Apple, it could conceivably result in them forming alliances with Microsoft, and if this cuts market share, it costs them money. They aren't going away tomorrow, I grant you that, but every percentage point of market share lost is ad dollars lost.

Thanks for your comment.

Ron

[loothor]

The idea of a serious alliance between Apple and Microsoft is even more ridiculous than the idea that Google marketing a phone is "the beginning of the end".

Is the phone business a good idea for Google? Maybe, maybe not, it's a highly competitive industry and hardware is a relatively new concept for the giant. Whether or not they will be successful in it is highly debatable, but the possible rewards far outweigh the risk for them.

Will Steve Jobs' dislike of Google daring to compete with his beloved iPhone outweigh 30 years of Apple hating Microsoft for idea-stealing and jacking their PC business or Microsoft hating Apple for their never-ending public portrayal of Windows as an unreliable, dangerous gargantuan pile of crap? Not a freaking chance.

Absurd.

[Techwriter10]

Actually, politics and business make for strange bedfellows and stranger things have happened. Fact is, that reliable sources are suggesting that Microsoft and Apple are in serious talks about bringing Bing to the iPhone. There are big egos involved here, and even if aligning with Microsoft doesn't appear to be in Apple's best interest, don't think they wouldn't do it if they think Google is after their business. It may be absurd to you my friend, but trust me, stranger things have happened in this business.

Thanks for your comment.

Ron

[solitaryy]

Apple has nothing on Google.

[lameregister]

I'm sure Google couldn't care less about the iPhone. They simply like to create cool new things (they're engineers after all) - and if it takes off and makes them a bunch of money, great! If not, move onto the next cool idea. All the while, their cash cow keeps flowing.

Apple does not operate this way. They are much more traditional in their business approach. They very much depend on the success of their next product, or the enforcement of their I.P.

I think Google is too nimble to be affected by Apple's rage. If anyone can give Apple a run for their money, it will be Google.

As for Bing... meh. Have you ever used it? I gave it a go for a week and was very happy to jump back to Google.

[wildawe]

Steve Jobs may not like it, but competition is healthy for the markets for consumers and for the products. If he makes an agreement making Bing the only search option in the Iphones, he will upset their users, because Google is very popular and still the best search engine of the two. Also, Google is not like the kind of an weak company that could not react with a strong answer in the most convenient way.

[lenlin]

I wouldn't dream of buying any gay over-priced over-hyped Apple Product. The Google phone is for the rest of us (the 90%). It even runs on linux which is THE OS for mobile devices. Google is smart for not missing the increasingly important mobile market, unlike M$.
Google has to fear no one. In the future the main players will be google, linux/free open source software. Apple will have a certain market but <10% as usual and M$ will be a fraction of their former self (due to lack of innovation) lucky to hold 20%.
Jobs should worry about the ipad which is a flop (iphone OS, no multi-tasking, no flash, no ports, no keyboard, not portable, not a good ebook-reader....)
Have you seen the killer linux based tablets?

[Techwriter10]

Lenlin:
I don't appreciate you using my blog as a forum for your personal homophobia. Products are not gay, people are and you insult them when you use the term in this manner.

I'm not suggesting Google doesn't make good products by the way or disparaging Google in any way, and I'm not sure, how you took that from my post. What I said, if you read it, was that Google has made some big enemies and it could cost them market share. If it does, it costs them and their shareholders money.

They have every right to compete in whatever markets they want. I haven't seen the Linux tablets yet, but I do own a Linux Netbook and it's a nice little machine.

Ron

[debos]

That's at rich comment coming from Jobs. I seem to recall the Apple promising the Beatles (original copyright holders of 'Apple' TM) that they wouldn't get into the music business. This agreement held until Jobs reneged on the agreement and started to sell music - resulting in a due court appearance and financial recompense.

As far as I know Google has never promise Apple that it wouldn't get into the mobile phone market. Since when did Apple have a monopoly on that. Jobs seems to be suffering from delusions of grandeur and omnipotence. Well power corrupts, and apples will one day rot.