Member Avatar for RikTelner

Hey.

2TB RAM costs now about 26000 dollars.
2GB RAM costs now about 30 dollars.

In which year, 2TB RAM will become worth 30 dollars?

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  • Latest Post Latest Post by RikTelner
Member Avatar for JorgeM

This answer is probably too simplistic, but I think if you apply some of the concepts of Moore's Law you should expect that the technology will continue to double every 18-24 months. Take a look at this historically, was the cost of 1GB of RAM about $30 18-24 months ago? If so, then it should be about $30 for 4GB of RAM in 18-24 months. Continue the math until you get to 2TB.

Member Avatar for rubberman 
Well, given that a 2TB disc now costs under $100 USD today, I would say about 2 years... :-) A 2GB disc? You can't even buy one any longer, other that in the format of an SD or USB device! :-)
Member Avatar for JorgeM

2GB disc?

I beleive that RikTelner is referring to RAM memory, not secondary storage drives.

commented: Yes. I meant RAM memory. But I don't know why could that be misunderstood. I placed "RAM" after each memory unit. +2
Member Avatar for mike_2000_17

I think that by the time a 2TB RAM stick would cost only 30$, we will already have switched to memristor technology (or one of its alternatives), and the RAM + HDD paradigm will be a thing of the past. We are clearly moving towards a unified "better than both" storage technology that will replace both RAM and disk, and that will be a major revolution (e.g. boot up the computer in a second, no more "sleep" required (if RAM is non-volatile), thousands of times faster disk I/O, etc.). And there is too much potential in this technology for it to remain prototypical for long, all major players are fast-tracking this and trying to patent and commercialize it ASAP.

Member Avatar for Ed E

I think the real problem will be to keep the data/programs/etc. updated in a format readable when the data is actually going to be needed. I've run into problems with something as simple as word processing files where I had to scan the output from the original word processing program (fortuantely saved in 1992 on a dot matrix printer generated page) in order to recover the data.

Member Avatar for RikTelner

This answer is probably too simplistic, but I think if you apply some of the concepts of Moore's Law you should expect that the technology will continue to double every 18-24 months. Take a look at this historically, was the cost of 1GB of RAM about $30 18-24 months ago? If so, then it should be about $30 for 4GB of RAM in 18-24 months. Continue the math until you get to 2TB.

I don't know how much it was worth back then. I would require someone with interest of hardware for longer period of time.

Member Avatar for caperjack

sounds like it must have been a school test question ,lol

Edited by caperjack
Member Avatar for RikTelner

No, it wasn't. I am just curious.

Member Avatar for ActingRude

Moores law is still the best way to find an estimation for this. Why estimate 1+1 when someone has already determined that 2 is the closest answer?

Member Avatar for rozermartin28

I don't think so, that it would ever be down the line for just 30 dollars. Still I appreciate the view of JorgeM.

Member Avatar for jwenting

Today's prices for one representative type of modern RAM in a normal price store (so no stunt prices):
4GB 41 Euro
8GB 78 Euro
12GB 135 Euro
16GB 179 Euro
32GB 344 Euro
64GB 662 Euro

As you see, it roughly doubles as the size doubles. This type doesn't come in 2GB modules btw, those are only available in the lower end types.
But placing those separate, you see the same effect:
512MB 15 Euro
1GB 26 Euro
2GB 55 Euro

which shows that old style RAM modules are actually more expensive per GB than new ones (almost twice as expensive in fact).
This of course is due to production volumes. The old modules are produced in small volumes, making them more expensive to manufacture than the new ones simply because the manpower needed to run the production lines now needs to be paid for by lower volume of sales.

So does the price come down? Not really. Discounting those different manufacturing costs the price per GB of modules in the same range is pretty much independent of the size of the module.

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