A recent prediction from Gartner states that blogging may soon reach its peak. By the first half of 2007, it says, the number of bloggers will only be around 100 million. Recent data from Technorati shows that although there's 100,000 new blogs online, 200 million bloggers have quit. Additionally, less than 2% of all internet users contribute regularly. Of course, the loss in bloggers at Technorati could also be attributed to the crack down on spam blogs.
The managing vice president of Gartner says, "Selected from across our research areas as the most compelling and critical predictions, the trends and topics they address this year indicate that priorities, markets, cultures, and technologies are all rapidly changing." They believe that IT is rapidly changing, and that many internet trends, such as blogging, will quickly change.
What does this mean for DaniWeb? Lost bloggers, of course. But we would also potentially lose traffic. And this may have a chain reaction to the number of posters. For example, a popular blog entry will draw in thousands of visitors to DaniWeb, which is good publicity. Lack of bloggers will decrease the number of new people joining DaniWeb. That is, if this blogging report is true.
The question: is blogging really a trend, or is it a way of news junkies and journalists simply expressing their thoughts? The first is probably true. A lot of people just "want to blog", post a few entries, and then give up because it's too much work. I have this problem, and I know many other people who do this also. However, the second is also true. People who love news will use blogs to express their thoughts. A website will not work. Websites are for static information. Blogs are for dynamic content. And as long as there is news junkies out there who have an internet connection, there will be no shortage of news opinions.
So, do I really think that DaniWeb is in trouble? Not really. But the report is still interesting.
